matthew

How can you honestly expect this to end well? Moron...

Let’s all hope there is only one.

Unknown

Nick Crocker is MD of Native Digital and co-founder of We Are Hunted.

It seems as though the first era of digital music may have come to an end. Napster died, P2P lived in some black market twilight zone, streaming services on ad-supported revenue were suffocated by unsustainably high licensing fees, and subscription services sputtered along, never quite capturing the imaginations of music fans. 2009 ended in a flurry of acquisitions (LaLa, iLikeIlike

), launches (Vevo) and shutdowns (iMeemimeem

), which dramatically rearranged the digital music landscape. When the dust finally settles, expect digital music to begin anew.

With that in mind, here are my five predictions for music in 2010.

1. Labels Will Get Smart

It’s been coming for more than a decade, but major labels are starting to grasp the digital opportunity. They’re licensing music on more sustainable terms, diversifying their business model, investing in new technology and, most critically, understanding more than ever what it means to be truly consumer-led.

As market leaders, major labels have the resources and the networks to profit most from the changes currently taking place. The move from physical to digital hasn’t been as fast as many people might have wished, but that’s because digital still doesn’t pay like physical does.

CDs, when they sell well, still mean big money. Digital isn’t like that. But that’s changing, and as major labels have shrunk, their capacity for change has increased. Expect 2010 to be the year that the bad press on the major labels starts becoming more favorable.

The promises of the digital age — deeper understanding of the music consumer, integrated ticketing and merchandise, direct-to-consumer sales, and fans as marketing teams — are all about to become a reality, and major labels will lead the charge.

2. Physical CD Sales Will Continue to Decline

To ensure at least one of my predictions comes true, I’m going to forecast that globally, sales of physical CDs will decline in 2010. That’s one thing you can definitely count on.

3. Release Strategies Will Evolve

The traditional model of building buzz through radio singles followed by a carefully timed album launch will still be the norm for commercial pop music. But at the edges, we’re going to start seeing a new model for releasing music that’s more attuned to the diverse community of music consumers.

The new model, pioneered by Topspin Media, will be the multi-tiered, staggered release. Artists will offer free, full streams and selected downloads early to the curious and the devoted, building their fanbase as they grow. Traditional release schedules will follow, in tandem with more innovative products, at more diverse prices, to more accurately segmented groups of fans.

Rather than just a plastic CD, we’ll start seeing multiple tiers of music product: free streams and low quality mp3s, simple digital and physical packages, enhanced audio and packaging on digital and physical releases, and then levels of premium products including vinyl, merchandise, and increased access to the artist.

We still think of music in its physical form as a CD on the shelf. Increasingly, we’re going to understand it as a suite of music products — T-Shirts, mugs, books, framed art, signed lyric sheets, USBs, and once-in-a-lifetime music experiences.

4. Music Will Live Legitimately in the Cloud

It’s been talked about for a number of years, but 2010 could be the year we start thinking of music less as a finite product and more as an infinite, on-demand reservoir to be accessed at any time for a fee.

This process will roll out in tandem with the evolution of music “products.” Even if music is universally accessible, it’s still key to people’s idenity. We still need something to put on a coffee table, something to pass to friends, something to put under the Christmas tree and something to signal to the world that “this music is part of me and I want you to know it.”

iTunes, as ever, is in the driver’s seat to make the most of this change. Its acquisition of LaLa could see them own the streaming market as it currently owns digital music.

Spotify’s buzz seems to have cooled, but it’s still the best-placed streaming service to take advantage of the cloud’s potential.

Grooveshark’s growth, if it continues, is going to make it a serious player in the streaming game.

MySpaceMySpace

, with iMeem and iLike in its back pocket may also consolidate its place in the land of the streaming.

And finally, GoogleGoogle

–- who owns the bridge over the moat, digitally speaking –- could pull the rug from everyone and facilitate properly integrated music streaming into its search platform.

Whoever emerges at the front of this pack will be in new territory, providing access to the world’s music, anytime, anywhere on any device.

5. Who Knows?

There’s some as-yet untested consumer models building momentum.

Guvera is promising the world, not just to the music industry, but to advertisers as well. Whether consumers buy into its advertisement for content exchange remains to be seen.

Rdio, with serious pedigree and some big money backing it, hasn’t poked its head up completely yet, but you can be assured that whatever it offers isn’t going to be lightweight.

Lost in all the buzz is the fact that some legacy digital music companies — Last.FMLast.fm

, PandoraPandora

and MySpace to name a few — still have the established brands, the existing customer base, and the revenue streams that preserve their lives beyond the froth of the tech/music blogosphere.

And of course, there’s FacebookFacebook

. The biggest country in the world (or soon to be), Facebook and music have always been awkward bedfellows. If Zuckerberg and Co. can figure a way to integrate music with the Facebook platform, the existing user base would guarantee a big chunk of the market overnight.

It all adds up to create a big void of uncertainty, one that will be filled in the way the web knows best — by its end-users. What those end-users decide they love will ultimately determine the winners and losers in the digital music economy. As a passionate music fan, I can’t wait for the competition to heat up. For those on the digital frontier, music really is better than it’s ever been.

More music resources from Mashable:

- Top 10 Facebook Applications for Music Lovers
- Social Music: Top 5 Sites to Build a Playlist
- 10 Ways to Share Music on Twitter
- Free Music Monday: Hip Hop Edition
- 18 of the Best Music Tumblelogs
- Social Music: Top 5 Recommendation Services

Image courtesy of iStockphotoiStockphoto

, alengo, enot-poloskun,cinek20

Yikes.

-matthew

There’s no doubt that for many of us, Facebook consumes a goodly proportion of our time; on average, we spend 5 percent of our time online. For some teenagers, time spent on the 350 million-strong social network has gone beyond time spent and into time sunk. It’s prompted a spate of young users to devise ways of cutting down, taking breaks or simply deactivating their accounts altogether, according to The New York Times.

Some are even banding together to provide social support for curtailing the FacebookFacebook

obsession. Two teens at San Francisco University High School, Hally Lamberson and Monica Reed, made a pact to only log in on the first Saturday of every month. Ann Arbor, Michigan, sophomore Neeka Salmasi enlisted her sister to change her Facebook password for her every Sunday evening and not give the new credentials back to her until the following Friday.

Other strategies include giving up Facebook for Lent, “punishing” Facebook usage breaches with embarrassing Wall messages, deactivating an account temporarily or going cold turkey for the entire senior year after Facebook proved too distracting during college applications. Psychology professionals and school administrators alike acknowledge that usage of the social network can all too easily reach problematic levels of distraction. Dr. Kimberly Young, director of the Center for Internet Addiction Recovery, said she’s worked with dozens of teens trying to break the habit: “It’s like any other addiction… it’s hard to wean yourself.”

Author and teacher Rachel Simmons credits the new Facebook Live Feed format with exacerbating an already addictive online medium: “You’re getting a feed of everything everyone is doing and saying. You’re literally watching the social landscape on the screen, and if you’re obsessed with your position in that landscape, it’s very hard to look away.”

Do you or someone you know have a preferred strategy for limiting the time you spend on Facebook? Do the parents out there have any guidelines they use to help teens maintain a healthy relationship with their online networks?

[via eSchoolNews]

Glad I'm not alone.

-matthew

In the past few years, clever commercials have become content in and of themselves, thanks in no small part to the rise of YouTube and embeddable multimedia.

For example, Verizon and AT&T’s recent war over coverage maps has made for plenty of tech and media blog fodder, with each new ad drawing lots of eyeballs both in TV and in online media.

But the campaign that perhaps personifies this more than any other is Apple’s iconic “Get a Mac” ads, a staple of both TV and Internet advertising since 2006. Perhaps it should come as no surprise then that AdWeek has just named the series “campaign of the decade” in its best of the 2000s roundup.

Here’s what the publication has to say about “Get a Mac”:

“Apple always diverged from the ’speeds and feeds’ ads associated with the computer category, but the brand really defined itself with the 2006 launch of TBWA\Media Arts Lab’s ‘Get a Mac’ campaign. That series of 60-plus ads brought some humanity into the equation by turning the machines into live-action cartoons. In so doing, the comic spots offer transparent understanding of the aspirations of its audience and how people identify—and connect emotionally—with technology.

The genius is in the casting. The Mac guy, Justin Long, is a younger version of Steve Jobs who is casual and comfortable in his skin. PC, personified by John Hodgman, as a rounder, paler Bill Gates, is a well-meaning geek with all kinds of operating problems. For Apple, the campaign managed the neat trick of making the brand look laid back and cool while it mercilessly skewered its rival.”

AdWeek actually went tech- and Apple-happy for its entire end of decade special — GoogleGoogle

was named both media and technology company of the decade, YouTubeYouTube

top website, Steve Jobs top marketer, Apple top brand and iPod top product. Conventional picks, perhaps, but difficult to make a strong argument against as we wind down the ’00s and consider the performance and impact of these companies over the past 10 years.